For years, the Middle East has been mired in a seemingly endless cycle of conflict, with Israel and its adversaries engaging in a high-stakes game of tit-for-tat. But a recent turn of events has signaled a significant shift in the balance of power, as Israel flexes its military might and refuses to “go gently into that good night,” as Welsh poet Dylan Thomas so eloquently put it.
At the heart of this renewed resolve lies the ongoing confrontation with Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terrorist organization that has long posed a formidable threat to the Jewish state. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared at the United Nations General Assembly, “Israel will not go gently into that good night.” And true to his word, Israel has embarked on a calculated and methodical campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities, sending a clear message that enough is enough.
The Turning Point: The Killing of Nasrallah
The recent assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, marked a pivotal moment in this ongoing struggle. Described by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s former adviser, as “the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough,” the elimination of this arch-terrorist signaled a significant shift in Israel’s approach.
Restoring Deterrence
The precision and audacity of this operation have not gone unnoticed, both by Israelis and the country’s adversaries. After a year of Hezbollah’s unprovoked attacks and the displacement of tens of thousands of residents in northern Israel, the killing of Nasrallah has helped to restore the nation’s deterrence. As one observer noted, “If anyone thought that, following the colossal failure of October 7, Israel had lost ‘it’ – that X factor, that ‘Entebbe’ factor – then the last two weeks surely went a long way in changing their minds.”
Unnerving the Enemy
The assassination has also sent shockwaves through the ranks of Israel’s enemies, particularly Iran, which had invested heavily in Hezbollah as a deterrent against potential strikes on its nuclear facilities. Reports of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, being moved to a “safe location” following Nasrallah’s death illustrate the depth of the concern – and with good reason. If Israel could eliminate the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, no one is safe from the Jewish state’s long reach.
Systematic Degradation of Hezbollah
The killing of Nasrallah was not an isolated incident, but rather the culmination of a carefully orchestrated campaign to systematically degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities. This process began months ago, with a series of precision strikes and targeted actions that chipped away at the terrorist organization’s arsenal, fortifications, and communication systems.
Precision Strikes and Targeted Actions
Over the past 11 months, Israel has carried out a series of precision strikes and targeted actions against Hezbollah, including the destruction of the group’s communications systems and the elimination of key military commanders. These meticulously planned operations have left the terrorist organization reeling, unable to mount an effective response.
A Guiding Hand Behind the Scenes
The progression of events in Lebanon suggests that there was a guiding hand behind these actions, a strategic vision that went beyond mere retaliation. First, the focus was on weakening Hezbollah’s arsenal and fortifications, then disrupting its communication systems, and finally targeting the group’s leadership. This carefully choreographed sequence of events has left Hezbollah on the back foot, struggling to maintain its grip on southern Lebanon.
Shifting the Balance of Power
The systematic degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities has had far-reaching implications, altering the balance of power in the region and forcing Israel’s adversaries to reconsider their strategies.
Hobbling Iran’s Deterrent
For decades, Iran has invested heavily in Hezbollah, viewing the terrorist organization as a crucial deterrent against potential Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities. Now, with Hezbollah’s capabilities significantly diminished, Iran’s sense of security has been shaken. The Jewish state’s ability to target and eliminate Hezbollah’s leadership has left the Iranian regime wondering whether it can still rely on this once-formidable proxy to safeguard its interests.
Newfound Confidence and Optimism
The turn of events in the past two weeks has also had a profound impact on the Israeli psyche. After a year of setbacks and self-doubt, the country now finds itself brimming with newfound confidence and cautious optimism. The successful elimination of Nasrallah and the degradation of Hezbollah’s military capabilities have signaled a shift in the tide, with the Jewish state no longer willing to sit back and absorb the blows of its adversaries.
Lessons Learned from the Past
The current confrontation with Hezbollah bears a striking resemblance to Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which ultimately led to the rise of the terrorist organization. As veteran journalist David Ignatius observed, the problem then, as now, was one of overreach – a desire to go to the root and crush the enemy, without a clear plan for how to end the conflict.
The Specter of Quagmire
In 1982, Israel’s overwhelming military dominance masked a strategic weakness – its leaders didn’t have a good answer to the question, “Tell me how this ends.” The siege of Beirut dragged on, and Israel found itself caught in a quagmire, unable to extricate itself cleanly. This experience has clearly shaped Israel’s approach this time around, as the country seeks to avoid the pitfalls of the past.
Avoiding the Mistakes of 1982
Lessons from the 1982 invasion have not been lost on Israel’s current leadership. Unlike the previous conflict, the country has meticulously planned and prepared its actions, systematically chipping away at Hezbollah’s capabilities rather than engaging in a full-scale invasion. The goal is to degrade the terrorist organization’s strength without getting bogged down in a protracted conflict, a strategy that appears to be paying dividends.
The Role of the United States
As the conflict in Lebanon unfolds, the United States has played a crucial, if delicate, role in the proceedings. The Biden administration, aware of the immense cost of war, has been trying to find an “exit ramp” for the past 11 months, but the hard logic of war has proven stronger than the soft logic of peace.
Balancing Act
The United States finds itself in a precarious position, caught between its desire to maintain stability in the region and its unwavering support for Israel. While the Biden administration has sought to broker a ceasefire and a return to the status quo, it must also navigate the complexities of Israel’s actions and the broader geopolitical implications.
Inevitable Ceasefire Resolution
Ultimately, the U.S. and its allies, such as France, will likely put forward a ceasefire resolution that calls for the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions regarding Lebanon, including the disarmament of Hezbollah and its removal from southern Lebanon. However, this time, Israel is unlikely to leave the implementation of any agreement in the hands of a UNIFIL force or a Lebanese Army unwilling to confront the terrorist organization. The IDF will likely take a more active role in ensuring the terms of the ceasefire are upheld, a departure from the past.
The Road Ahead
As the Jewish year 5784 transitions to 5785, the future remains uncertain, but the landscape has undoubtedly shifted. Israel’s renewed resolve and the systematic degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities have created a new reality, one that challenges the conventional wisdom about the region’s intractable conflicts.
Cautious Optimism and Vigilance
While Israelis are understandably cautious about the future, the events of the past two weeks have instilled a sense of renewed confidence and optimism. The country is no longer willing to passively absorb the blows of its adversaries, but it must also guard against the pitfalls of overconfidence and hubris. Vigilance and a clear-eyed assessment of the challenges ahead will be crucial as Israel navigates this critical juncture.
Securing a Lasting Peace
Ultimately, the goal is not merely to defeat Hezbollah, but to create the conditions for a lasting peace – one in which the residents of northern Israel can return to their homes without the constant threat of rocket fire and missile attacks. The road ahead may be long and arduous, but Israel’s newfound resolve and the strategic shifts in the region have opened up new possibilities for a more secure and prosperous future.
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