Forever Putinism: The Future of Russian Leadership

For almost a quarter of a century, Vladimir Putin has been at the helm of Russia’s leadership. His upcoming reelection to a fifth term as president is virtually certain, solidifying his grip on power for another six years. At 72 years old, Putin’s potential for ruling well into his 80s raises questions about the future of Russian leadership. With no clear successor, living rivals, or retirement plan in sight, the eventual death of Putin could trigger a vicious power struggle. In this article, we delve into the concept of “Forever Putinism” and explore the potential scenarios that may unfold after Putin’s departure, shedding light on the challenges and risks that lie ahead for Russia.

The Rise of Putin and the Absence of Rivals

Putin’s ascent to power began in 1999 when he was plucked from relative obscurity by ailing President Boris Yeltsin to serve as Russian prime minister. Within months, he became the acting president and has since maintained a firm grip on the country. One of the key factors contributing to Putin’s longevity is his leadership style that allows no rivals. Over the years, potential opposition figures like Alexei Navalny and Boris Nemtsov have faced dire consequences, including imprisonment and even death. Putin’s control over the political landscape has left his nominal rivals in this weekend’s election as state-sanctioned nobodies, reinforcing his dominance.

The Advantage of Putin’s Longevity in Foreign Affairs

Putin’s extended tenure in power provides him with a significant advantage in foreign affairs. Unlike countries where partisan changes occur every few years, Putin can navigate international relationships with a sense of continuity. He can patiently wait for friendlier leaders to emerge in countries like the United States, while his main foreign enemy, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, faces the pressure of maintaining popularity to secure his position. Putin’s experience and established relationships give him an upper hand, allowing him to solidify Russia’s geopolitical position.

The Vulnerabilities of Forever Putinism

While Putin’s long-term rule may seem like an advantage, it also creates vulnerabilities for his regime. Any regime that promises to last forever cannot afford to be perceived as a failure. The myth of Putin’s omnipotence and his presentation as the sole director of Russia’s destiny pose a long-term risk for the regime. The regime’s survival depends on maintaining the illusion of its inevitability and immortality, which becomes increasingly challenging over time.

Putin’s Best-Known Disciples and Potential Successors

Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s best-known disciple, once held the position of president from 2008 to 2012 while Putin served as prime minister. Medvedev was initially seen as a potential reformer but has since adopted aggressive nationalism and derisive statements about Ukraine and the West. Other potential successors like Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and military leaders such as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have limited popular support. The governor of Russia’s Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, with his background as Putin’s former personal bodyguard, has sparked speculation as a potential front-runner. However, it remains unclear who Putin sees as a suitable replacement, as he has not publicly endorsed a junior partner.

The Role of Putin’s Family in Succession

Unlike other strong leaders who often groom family members as successors, Putin has kept his daughters out of the public eye, offering no sign that they are being prepared for future leadership. Although he officially has two daughters, they are not publicly linked to him or involved in politics. Putin’s reluctance to establish a clear family succession plan adds to the uncertainty surrounding Russia’s future leadership.

Putin’s Health and the Speculation Surrounding His Succession

Speculation about Putin’s health has been a topic of discussion, with rumors of a heart attack circulating in the media. While these rumors lack evidence, they highlight the fact that Putin’s eventual departure is inevitable. His ability to play the long game has been evident in his foreign policy actions, such as the invasion of Ukraine. However, his departure from office is expected to trigger a bitter and chaotic power struggle.

The Challenges of Succession in a Post-Putin Era

The Russian constitution outlines that the prime minister automatically becomes the acting president with limited powers in the event of the president’s death or incapacitation. However, Russia’s current prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, lacks a strong power base and is unlikely to become the permanent replacement. New presidential elections must be held within three months of the president’s departure, but the real power struggle will occur behind the scenes, potentially taking months or even years to resolve. The absence of a clear successor and the possibility of a violent power struggle raise concerns about the stability and future direction of Russia.

Lessons from History: Autocratic Succession and Power Struggles

History provides examples of autocratic successions that were messy and tumultuous. In Russia, coalitions proclaiming “collective leadership” briefly held power after the deaths of Vladimir Lenin and Josef Stalin. However, in each case, one member of the coalition outmaneuvered and eliminated their partners. These examples serve as reminders that autocratic successions often involve power struggles and uncertainty.

The Implications of Forever Putinism for Russia’s Future

Forever Putinism has shaped Russia’s political landscape and society, militarizing the nation and suppressing dissent. The war in Ukraine has solidified Putin’s image as a defender of Russia’s national interests, further strengthening his hold on power. However, the myth of Putin’s invincibility and the regime’s portrayal of forever Putinism as the only path forward present long-term risks. The eventual departure of Putin will undoubtedly lead to a period of turbulence and uncertainty, with the potential for a bloody power struggle that could reshape the country’s political landscape.

Conclusion: The Uncharted Path Ahead

As Vladimir Putin’s reign continues, the future of Russian leadership remains uncertain. The absence of a clear successor, living rivals, and a retirement plan leaves Russia on the brink of a power struggle once Putin eventually departs. Forever Putinism, with its advantages and vulnerabilities, has shaped Russia’s political landscape and foreign relations. The challenges of succession and the potential for instability highlight the complexities of navigating a post-Putin era. The world watches with anticipation as Russia prepares for an uncertain future, one that will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for the country and its role on the global stage.

Robert

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